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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 h | 1-3 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | RiskDecisionSensemaking | SensemakingDecisionRationale | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |