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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | Small cross-functional group | 1-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale |