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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |