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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 15-45 min | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |