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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |