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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of Leverage Points with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowLow
Timedifferent
0.5-2 TageHalf day45-90 min20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
4-123-122-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsLeverage Map, Action StrategyAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
Systems thinkingChangeStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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