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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage45-90 min1-5 Tage1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
4-123-8NutzertrafficNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsImpact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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