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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |