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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ChangeDecisionStrategy |