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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |