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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 60-120 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |