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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 60-180 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 4-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingDecisionRationale |