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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |