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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 10-20 min daily | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-10 | 1 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |