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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 2-4 h | 45-90 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 4-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy |