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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 2-4 h | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 3-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ChangeDecisionStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |