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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |