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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 60-120 min | 1-2 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |