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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |