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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |