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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingDecisionRationale |