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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |