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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage30-90 min10-20 min daily1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
4-121-616-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
DecisionTreeOptions
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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