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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 45-90 min | Half day | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | 3-12 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |