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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 45-60 min | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |