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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage45-60 min1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
4-122-81-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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