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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h | 10-20 min daily | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1-8 | 1 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingDecisionRationale | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |