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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 10-20 min daily | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |