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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 10-20 min daily | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1 | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | DecisionTreeOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |