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| Criterion |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 0.5-2 Tage | 10-20 min daily | 60-180 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 | 1 | 4-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |