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Criterion
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
0.5-2 Tage30-90 min45-90 min15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
4-123-123-81-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsAffinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear ItemsImpact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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