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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-6 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |