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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
30-60 min2-6 h2-4 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-103-102-62-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk Matrix, Top Risk ListEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic MeasuresAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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