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| Criterion |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-60 min | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |