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| Criterion |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-60 min | 45-90 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |