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Criterion
Paper illustration of a scoring table with four factor columns, a calculator and three ordered initiative cards.
Product Strategy
RICE Scoring
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When many initiatives compete for the same resources, it brings reach, impact, confidence, and effort into one shared ranking. It makes prioritization economically connectable.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
60-90 min20–45 min45-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-10Small cross-functional group2-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
RICE Scores, Ranked List, Assumption LogRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PrioritizationScoringRoadmapTradeoffs
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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