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| Criterion |  Delivery RAID Log |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as a RAID Log and a source for status reporting. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30 min Setup, dann laufend | 15-45 min | 20–45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-3 maintaining, briefing for everyone | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | RAID Log, Status Report Source | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | RiskTrackingStakeholdersGovernance | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |