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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Time Blocking
Operations
Time Blocking
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With a calendar that grows on request, the method makes available time explicit again. It combines appointments, focus work, and buffer into a more realistic day structure.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min15-30 min Planung, laufend45-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group12-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logBlocked Calendar, Capacity View, Focus PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
PlanningTime managementFocus
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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