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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Theory of Constraints Thinking Process |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Theory of Constraints Thinking Process exposes a system's bottleneck and the logic behind it. It suits situations where many symptoms trace back to the same limiting relationship. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Current Reality Logic, Conflict Cloud, Future Reality Tree, Implementation Obstacles | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsConstraintsSystems thinkingCausality | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |