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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |