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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-5 Tage30-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteConstraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision BoundariesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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