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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Agile Bucket System |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage | 30-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | Nutzertraffic | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |