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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-5 Tage45-60 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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