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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |