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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighLowLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min0.5-2 Tage1-2 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group4-122-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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