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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | LeanStartupValidationMVP | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |