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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage | 2-4 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |