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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 2-6 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-10 | 3-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |