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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 20-45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-10 | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |