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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 45-90 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |